Home field advantage in the NFL and final tally NFL picks

Only counting the regular season of the NFL, after 17 weeks, I pucked the winners 67.84% of the time, 173-255.

According to "Home field advantage in the NFL" by SportsData, home field wins 57.2% of the time, for the last decade. That statistic is almost exactly the same as the one provided by Stephen J. Dinner in his article from NFL.com "Standing behind the home team." He gives it at 57.3%, which sounds like it includes a lengthier span than a decade, but with two statistics like that being with a tenth of a percent, these figures seem extremely reliable. That translates to picking the winner about 145 times, compared with my 173.

What does this tell us? Home field is important. Also, anybody can pick NFL games as long as they lead toward home field advantage, as long as when they pick they don't go against home field unless they have a strong conclusion otherwise--like pucking against the Oakland Raiders or Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Or even against my Bears this suck-ass year.

Let's compare these numbers with the premier analyst on ESPN's NFL Countdown, Tom Jackson. This year, according to the Fantasy Football Nerd website, he hit it right 173-256 times, or 67.6% (I somehow lost a game in my yearly tally but I am not going to search for it). That's the exact same number as mine, and he is a paid analyst. He makes some good picks and some that afterwards I am sure he shakes his head over, just like me. Since 2012, according to the Pundit Tracker website, Jackson has a hit percentage of 64%. Compare that to the 57% for home field advantage. That's just 7% over home field advantage.

Moral of the story, unless, like in Week 17 New England basically tanked the game on purpose because the result did not affect their playoff prospect in any way, unless you really know the complete strength of one team over the pathetic abilities of another, go with home field. If you don't know at all and have to guess, go with home field.